Eco-epidemiological assessment of the COVID-19 epidemic in China, January-February 2020

Type Journal Article - Glob Health Action
Title Eco-epidemiological assessment of the COVID-19 epidemic in China, January-February 2020
Author(s)
Volume 13
Issue 1
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2020
URL https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32404043
Abstract
Background: The outbreak of COVID-19 in China in early 2020 provides a rich data source for exploring the ecological determinants of this new infection, which may be of relevance as the pandemic develops.Objectives: Assessing the spread of the COVID-19 across China, in relation to associations between cases and ecological factors including population density, temperature, solar radiation and precipitation.Methods: Open-access COVID-19 case data include 18,069 geo-located cases in China during January and February 2020, which were mapped onto a 0.25 degrees latitude/longitude grid together with population and weather data (temperature, solar radiation and precipitation). Of 15,539 grid cells, 559 (3.6%) contained at least one case, and these were used to construct a Poisson regression model of cell-weeks. Weather parameters were taken for the preceding week given the established 5-7 day incubation period for COVID-19. The dependent variable in the Poisson model was incident cases per cell-week and exposure was